Fallacy of Expectation
Right off the bat, let’s get a couple definitions out of the way.
Merriam Webster defines a Fallacy as “A false or mistaken idea.”
Merriam Webster defines an Expectation as “The act or state of expecting.”
Combining them would imply that the act or state of expecting is a false or mistaken idea. Hmm.
Why do we have expectations? Why do we entertain ideas of the how someone will act, why a person will react to a stimulus, whether a hurricane will turn inland or out to sea…? Some might consider having expectations as a natural evolutionary trait to help us stay safe. Others might believe expectations are what we believe or want to happen. Some expectations might be borne of projection, where someone projects their mentality onto other people.
Why are we surprised at actions of a Roman Emperor? Why are we surprised at some of the actions of someone who plays professional sports? Why are we surprised at the actions of police officer, or firefighter? What about actions in war? Why isn’t my spouse handling things right?
For me, this is the Fallacy of Expectation. Why do I expect things to happen a certain way, or why do I expect people to act a certain way? When it comes to the Roman Emperor, I expect them to act in a manner in accordance to how I think a powerful leader should act. The same is true for the athletes, public servants. Then, I am shocked when I find they did something that does not follow my ethical or moral values.
Let’s look at the Roman Emperor. One thing that quickly sticks out to me is I am not taking into account is the ethos of the time. Roman Emperors were gods, but, were people just like us, though they did have different roles than we do. One role was to preserve their lineage, one of pure blood. That leads to some questionable behavior to you and me, but, in their eyes having a baby with a family member would be the only way to not mix their blood line.
I get surprised when I hear about athletes abusing people around them and in general just being jerks. I used to be an athlete and often joke about how I’d have made the leap to professional baseball if I were offered a Snickers bar, Mountain Dew and a train ticket. This one sits fairly close to the heart with me.
There have been many more stories lately about the good things athletes do, the charities they belong to and participate in, the hospitals they visit. That’s not been the case all the time. Professional athletes have so much money, resources, public opinion, shouldn’t they be able to control themselves and take care of the people around them? What do they really have to worry about? I’m projecting myself in this case to create an expectation of how they should act and handle themselves. If I had their resources, I’d like to believe that I’d find a way to help others, to be a better parent, to help guide future athletes. There are other things in play here too, but, I’m not going to go into the psychological issues that fame and money can bring, although, there are definite expectations that can be explored there.
The big issue for the day is public servants, namely Police Officers. Let’s get one thing straight here. I’m not defending anyone and that is the only stance I’m going to make. But, why do I feel the way I do towards their public actions? Probably because I don’t expect someone to die or to be hurt without reason by a Police Officer. I expect them to act the way I think I would, again, I’m using projection. It seems so simple for me to say I’d do something a different way. I don’t want to kill anyone. I’d take precautions to make sure the suspect could breathe, or I’d make accommodations to make sure they aren’t being hurt (with the understanding that some force would be necessary in some situations.) Why didn’t the Police Officers just <insert action>, that’s what I would have done. Projection.
Spouse, I love you.
Why doesn’t Spouse act right? Why does Spouse insist on doing things that don’t make sense or don’t have any rhyme or reason? Spouse, why did you word your text that way, I would have… Spouse, why do you obviously fold towels the wrong way and won’t do it the way I think they should be done. Spouse, why do you continue to torment yourself trying to make sure the family and I are taken care of? Take a day off, let us handle things, that’s what I would have done. See the fallacy at work here too? All these are based on projection, with a touch of ethos. Spouse is more straight forward when dealing with people and doesn’t see the need to put extra words into a text. Spouse learned to fold towels when they were younger. Spouse learned a long time ago that you should put all of your effort into your marital relationship; they picked you for a reason.
For these reasons, in my mind, an expectation is a fallacy. They lead you to make assumptions about people and things and how they will affect your life. How many times do your expectations come true? Expectations lead you to try rationalize behavior in a manner consistent with you, with how you would act, with how you would react, with how you think a storm should move, with how you predict the future will turn out.
Combating the fallacy can be a tough thing to do. I have been trying to look at the people, circumstances, surroundings, pasts that might lead a person or thing to do what it is doing, and then trying to figure out why it matters to me, why I’m getting upset that the towels aren’t right. Predicting the future is a no-no in my head, I am very often wrong. The Roman Emperor acted as they did due to the time they lived, their roles, their fear (sometimes of the mob, sometimes of their legacy.) Athlete’s, Police Officers, Spouses, turtles, hurricanes… all have different paths they’ve been following. They all have different roles. They are each going to turn in different directions in the future, sometimes predictably and sometimes not. Is it not better to try to understand why a thing happened or didn’t happen?
